@Article{MohorRodrTomaSiqu:2015:ExAnAs,
author = "Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna and Rodriguez, Daniel Andr{\'e}s and
Tomasella, Javier and Siqueira J{\'u}nior, Jos{\'e}
L{\'a}zaro",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Exploratory analyses for the assessment of climate change impacts
on the energy production in an Amazon run-of-river hydropower
plant",
journal = "Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies",
year = "2015",
volume = "4",
pages = "41--59",
keywords = "Adaptation,Amazon river basin, Climate change, Hydrologic
modeling, Hydropower, MHD-INPE.",
abstract = "Study region: The Tapaj{\'o}s Basin is an important Amazon
tributary affected byhuman activities with great potential for
water conflicts. The basin, as otherswithin the Amazon region, is
receiving a number of hydropower plants, amongthem the Teles Pires
plant, projected to operate in 2015.Study focus: Hydrological
impacts due to climate change affect human activi-ties, such as
hydroelectric generation, and should be carefully studied for
betterplanning of water management. In this study, we assess
climate change impactsby applying the MHD-INPE hydrological model
using several climate modelsprojections as inputs. The impact
assessment consisted of statistical shifts ofprecipitation and
discharge. Energy production in a projected hydropower plantwas
assessed through the development of annual power duration curves
for eachprojection, also considering its design and structural
limitations.New hydrological insights for the region: The high
inter-model variability inthe climate projections drives a high
variability in the projected hydrologicalimpacts. Results indicate
an increase of basins sensitivity to climate change
andvulnerability of water exploitation. Uncertainties prevent the
identification of asingular optimal solution for impacts
assessment. However, exploratory analysisof the plant design
robustness for hydropower generation show a reduction in theenergy
production even under projections of increased discharge, due to
plantcapacity limitations. This is valuable information for
stakeholders to decide aboutenergy production strategies.",
doi = "10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.04.003",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.04.003",
issn = "2214-5818",
language = "en",
urlaccessdate = "04 maio 2024"
}